Physician anesthesiologist at Stanford at Associated Anesthesiologists Medical Group
Richard Novak, MD is a Stanford physician board certified in anesthesiology and internal medicine.Dr. Novak is an Adjunct Clinical Professor in the Department of Anesthesiology, Perioperative and Pain Medicine at Stanford University, the Medical Director at Waverley Surgery Center in Palo Alto, California, and a member of the Associated Anesthesiologists Medical Group in Palo Alto, California.

When is the end of the COVID surge in your state? It varies from state to state. 

This website shows projections of when the coronavirus surge will peak in your state, and when coronavirus cases will finally decline. The graph above is for the entire 50 states, and shows the peak of the surge on April 16th, with an estimated 2,644 deaths that day. The data is clearly displayed in a graph of the calendar date vs. total deaths for each of the 50 states.

On a morning when the Surgeon General stated, “This week will be like a ‘Pearl Harbor’ and a ‘9/11’ moment,” and a day after the President said, “there will be a lot of death,” what is the true estimate for where you live?  

There is considerable variation amongst the states. New York looks like this, with the peak projected for April 11th, with a peak of 852 deaths per day:

California, where I live, looks like this, with the peak coming later on April 28th, and with a lower peak of 119 deaths per day:

These graphs are a reality check. When I share them with friends, the first things I hear are, “Oh my, I’d better stay inside, because the amount of cases is still increasing daily,” and “Oh my, the whole curve doesn’t go away until well into late June. How long will I have to shelter in place?”

The good news is, every one of the graphs shows an eventual decline, when the peak of the pandemic will be over.